Posted by
Don Stevens on Thursday, September 25, 2008 11:16:42 PM
The pre-season had ended and Iowa and NH were upon us. Upon them, the candidates. Upon the politicians and their minions. Political organizations were descending on Des Moines and Manchester, driving up real estate prices, crowding restaurants and cluttering the airwaves. The people of New Hampshire pretended to be indifferent, but of course they were not. They were flattered by this ritual which had evolved from what was once an election…..i.e. a choice, a selection, a taking one from the multiple. A deliberate and democratic decision.
Floyd Anderson obliged and attended the ceremonial and traditional functions of the NH all of which were much more established than the people of the Granite State were comfortable admitting : you arrive, you take up hotel space, you go to town meetings, you bug people on the street, you pretend to be casual and relaxed, you debate, you spend lots of money, you debate, you hold meetings, you pretend this droning process is not getting to you, you declare your love for NH; then before the ballots are counted, you rush on to the next state.
But Floyd did alright in the debates because he was willing to acknowledge reality. When discussing illegal immigrants, for example, he dropped one on them about Mexico : Mexico had the highest birth rate in the world in 1980, -81, -82. Mexico had had a revolution when Russia did and likewise had collapsed when the USSR collapsed (1988-89). Mexico was corrupt, poorly run and nearly 100 years behind the USA and western Europe and Japan in higher education; northern Mexico had become a narco-state. Fox, he suggested, was Yeltsin. Putin was more focused and in control----and frankly, Calderon, short and tough, looked a lot like Putin. Both Yeltsin and Fox were tall and not in control. Both Calderon and Putin would use oil money to fight drug money. Simple enough.
The debates were fine enough with less being decided on the GOP side than on the Democratic side. Only two things were decided in NH : Hillary Clinton was tough and Rudy Giuliani mistook a fair, an event, a ritual, festival for an election. The NH primary is not so much an election as it is a cultural exercise : a Protestant Marti Gras, a Kentucky derby without the horses, a World Series without the American League or the National League. It was more than a convention or a blind ritual; it had become a ceremony exerting its influence far beyond the borders of this state. For an Italian misjudging a ceremony was truly a cardinal sin. But when it was over there were many more, more authentic primaries to face.
In the early debates several things became clear : Bill Richardson was pretty emotional for a guy who been Sec of Energy and Amb to the UN; Chris Dodd acted like he was in the Senate fighting for another $26m for his state; Joe Biden was looking for his campaign legs; Dennis Kucinich believed in class struggle; Mike Gravel had a sense of humor; and Sen Barrack Obama was a sophisticated speaker.
On the GOP side : Floyd was disappointed with the failure of the GOP to discuss affirmative action. Here, he thought the liberal media was really setting the agenda for his conservative party. He also disliked the way the issue of terrorism or the war of terrorism was discussed. It was not so much that the discussion was not put in terms of fascist Islamic movements, but that the mechanics of foreign policy was often omitted. He was strongly for an alliance with Russia on the problem of terrorism. Floyd Anderson believed that there were only three countries which took aggressive responses to terrorism : the USA, Britain, and Russia---and of those Britain sometimes wavered with internal divisions. He did, however, find some common ground with Joe Biden who said that the road to a political solution in Iraq meant working with local government and local neighborhoods. Floyd went a step farther. In Floyd's words : "Iraq was a tribal society; stability could only come through working with the tribes." He felt that the central government should formally commit 40% of all oil revenue to the 15 tribes of Iraq. This 40% would then be apportioned according to a fairly refined formula.
He did learn to respect his opponents. He recognized Mike Huckabee's success as the product of having dealt intimately with the very real problems of his parishioners : he could imagine the Rev Huckabee sitting in a small office with a middle aged couple who had just lost a teen aged child or with some other person who had experienced a great personal loss. He soon recognized Mayor Giuliani's speaking skills and John McCain's tenacity and honesty. He was puzzled, however, with Mitt Romney's failure to share his great skills in business and finance with the audiences. Romney, he thought, was getting poor advice. You run on your strengths---and Romney's strength was his very considerable knowledge of trade, finance, production and distribution, not any long established association with Ronald Reagan. If he were going to be the next Ronald Reagan, certainly the Republican Party would recognize that; reminding folks of it himself would only diminish the resemblance. It looked to Lt-Gov Anderson as though someone was telling Romney the political equivalent of this baseball advice : "Have Floyd pinch hit for Alex Rodriguez in the bottom of the 9th."
Several of the other Republicans did not seem to know why they were in the race. Tancredo, he thought, was single issue candidate who could have better gotten out his message by talking about Mexico : northern Mexico as a narco-state and Mexican migration : in 1958 Mexico City had 3 million people; by 1981 it had 28 million. This rapid urbanization caused great problems with housing, traffic, health care, crime, education, and pollution.
Super Tuesday pretty much showed John McCain to be the candidate of the Republican suburbs, but his victory there was fueled by successes in NH and SC. (This suggested that the suburbs draw their fuel from fairly traditional sources.) By mid Feb, Giuliani was on a side track, not the main line and Mitt Romney was too flawed with pressured speech, choppy gestures, sophomoric self-comparisons to Ronald Reagan, and most of all his failure to display his talents in business. The road was open for the GOP, the party of the heir apparent to anoint the heir apparent.
The GOP anointed McCain in spite of his differences with the party on immigration and campaign reform because they knew that, if anything, he was to the right of Bush on anti-terrorism. The current president was willing to sustain American casualties in order not to kill too many of the opposition. The war in both Afghanistan and Iraq were being fought with hesitation and with the handicap of police rules in order to show the people of those places that America was a compassionate and moderate power. The effect was probably to convince the people there that American lacked resolve, sometimes courage and most definitely a plan.------And indeed they did : from the very beginning it was evident the idea of democracy for Iraq was a bit of an abstraction for Bush. Between occupation and election stood mostly a vacuum : a political vacuum for the Iraqis, an administrative vacuum for the Americans.
Finally, Floyd B. Anderson knew this:
There were two theories how to win a war : 1) von Klausowitz, Prussian, writing in the early 19th century said : You win by killing the enemy. You kill so many at all levels of the enemy's army that soon the enemy is either unwilling or unable to replace the losses and quits.
2) Secondly, Jomini, French, early 19th century, says that you win by taking territory and holding it. Soon the enemy is able neither able to advance, retreat, maneuver, be re-enforced or re-supplied. He is Cornwallis at Yorktown. He quits.
Both went to work for Russia as Napoleon became more powerful and more imperial. Although he had never been in the military, Lt-Gov Anderson knew this : Jomini was much more applicable to Iraq and less so Afghanistan than was von Klausowitz.
But now it was mid-February and the money was running out. The groundhog didn't smile on Floyd : he was pressed for cash and no harking back to a library for Jefferson or Washington or the Adams family was going to pull in any money. He went back to Des Moines and met with Ralph Jenkins. Together the old college buddies breathed new life into a third rate campaign.